Americans have suddenly become very concerned about the country's dependence on foreign energy, according to the Public Agenda, a non-partisan public policy research organization. This is the Public Agenda's second edition of a report, Public Agenda Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index , released on March 30.
When the first edition of the report was released mid-2005, the U.S. dependence on foreign energy supplies was not nearly so urgent in the public's awareness. At that time, the war in Iraq (and terrorism) was the only issue in which a majority of Americans had high anxiety about and felt Washington could do something about it—conditions which compel the politicians to pay attention. However, energy dependence has now "leapt to the forefront of the public's consciousness," according to Daniel Yankelovich, who was the founder (with former Secretary of State, Cyrus Vance) of The Public Agenda organization in 1975.
"Overall, the public's confidence in U.S. foreign policy has drifted downward since the first survey. On no issue did the government's policy receive an improved rating from the public in January's survey, and on a few the ratings changed for the worse," said Yankelovich in his article, "The Tipping Points," which will appear in the April issue of Foreign Affairs .
Based on the survey findings, Yankelovich believes that the public is less confident that the Administration "can achieve its goals in Iraq and Afghanistan, hunt down terrorists, protect U.S. borders, and safeguard U.S. jobs."
Americans Wary Of Creating Democracies Abroad
Another finding of interest is that now most of the public ranks promoting democracy in other countries as the least important of the foreign policy goals that were asked about in the survey, and, moreover, the public doubts that it can be achieved. According to the report, only 36 percent believe the United States can actively help other countries become democracies, while 58 percent say that "democracy [is] something that countries only come to on their own when they're ready for it."
These majority views should be troubling to the Bush administration that has promoted democracy, as a major goal of U.S. policy in Iraq and throughout the Middle East, to improve stability in the region. Only 20% say promoting democracy is "very important." By contrast, the public would have as its first priority helping other nations recover from natural disasters like the Asian tsunami (71% say it's a "very important goal").
A New Issue Forcing the Government to Take Note: Energy Supplies
According to the press release of Public Agenda and Foreign affairs, "The public is especially critical of the job the United States is doing to become less dependent on other countries for our supply of energy. Nearly half of those polled give the United States a D or F (46 percent) for its efforts to become less dependent on foreign sources of energy, while only 9 percent gave the United States an A. More than half (55 percent) are worried that problems abroad may hurt our supply of oil and raise prices for American consumers."
At a telephone news conference on March 29 concerning this report, it was pointed out that in the State of Union address, the President referred to the nation's "addiction to oil." This speech was given after this survey had been conducted. While the Administration always denies it conducts private surveys, Yankelovich said "we know it does," and, undoubtedly, the Administration's polling showed the same results as Public Agenda's survey. The President's remarks, which were well-received by the public, went over well because energy dependence has moved up and become an issue of urgent concern to the majority of Americans.
"Tipping Points" and Emerging Issues of Urgent Concern
Three new issues have come forward into the arena of issues of special concern to a majority of Americans. These three issues are: outsourcing jobs to other countries; illegal immigration; the United States deteriorating relations with the Muslim world.
However, these three new issues haven't quite reached the level of urgency that Iraq and the country's energy dependence have, and where public opinion may "tip" the hands of government leaders. We should keep our eye on them though.
Yankelovich introduced the concept, "Tipping Points," which attempts to set forth the necessary conditions for which the government leaders can no longer ignore the public discontent. The tipping point rests on three pillars: (1) frequency of concern; (2) intensity of concern; and (3) the perception that the government can do something about it. An issue reaches the "tipping point" when vast majorities are concerned about the issue; the majority worry a lot about the issue; and it is perceived that the government can do something effective. Iraq in the first edition and now energy in the second edition satisfy the criteria for conditions that compel the government to take note of an issue.
The report, "Public Agenda Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index," was a joint venture of Public Agenda and the journal, Foreign Affairs , with major support from the Ford Foundation. Foreign Affairs is published by the Council of Foreign Relations. The claim made by them, "America's most influential publication on international affairs and foreign policy," is undoubtedly true given its reputation and influence.
To create the Foreign Policy Index, Public Agenda interviewed a nationwide random sample of 1,000 adult Americans in January 2006.
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