Wei Jingsheng, a well-known human rights activist and chairman of the Overseas Coalition for China’s Democracy Movement, presented his unique views on the recent visits by Taiwan’s opposition leaders to China and the Taiwan - China situation during an Epoch Times interview. Following is a transcript of Wei’s major points.

The Chinese Communist Regime Is Busy Preparing for War

As a matter of fact, Hu Jintao, China’s Party Chief, has a strong motive for war with Taiwan. That’s because Hu has not been able to consolidate his power in the Party or among the people easily and he is not yet in total control. In other words, as a dictator, he doesn’t have enough authority. How does he establish that authority? The tradition of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) dictates that he must fight a war.

To establish absolute authority, Mao Zedong fought the Korean War when he took power and Deng Xiaoping fought a war with Viet Nam when he ascended to power.

Actually, there was another war in between, caused by a nationwide famine in the early 1960s when the CCP quickly lost its credibility among the people. The CCP fought a war with India and regained its authority. So the CCP really has this pattern of behavior.

Hu is someone who follows Mao’s example closely, and as a result, he’d be willing to wage a war to solidify his own absolute power. The war may serve as a purging process in which all those who are not loyal will fall out of favor and be weeded out.

Out of patriotism, people would probably go all out to support him during a war, since the nation cannot lose sight of its priorities over trivial matters. More importantly, all of the internal problems, including the collapse of China’s economy and 50 percent of its non-performing accounts, in addition to the political power issue, will be resolved all at once.

The CCP Has Prepared for Many Years to Win This War

For years, the CCP has been readying itself for this war, with hundreds of short-range missiles deployed across the strait of Taiwan. In fact, those missiles are more for Americans in case they come to Taiwan’s aid. No one can be 100 percent sure that they can win a war, but the CCP has reasons to be optimistic about coming out victorious. From a purely military perspective, China is not likely to lose if it fights a war with Taiwan or even with the U.S. Why is this so? The reason is, China will not fight Americans face to face and neither will it need to travel to America. Rather, Americans would have to travel half way around the globe, across the Pacific Ocean, to fight a war at China’s doorstep.

It’s going to be a dogged war for Americans. China is not Iraq, and it would be a bloody war. America suffered only two major military defeats in its history, both with China in the Korean War and the Viet Nam War. So what are America’s odds of winning a war? They are very slim. Probably 50/50, depending on who is better prepared. They know this, so it becomes a political contest. In other words, it becomes a matter of making great efforts to prevent a war from breaking out.

For some years now, the CCP has been attempting to overcome all the difficulties that might occur during the war through diplomatic channels. One of the difficulties comes from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), whose members may all rise up against the CCP once a war breaks out. Another hurdle is Japan, who may act as the American supply base.

That’s why the CCP, in preparing for war, has to first drive a wedge between the U.S. and its European allies, and secondly coerce Japan not to provide American troops with logistics support. A well-known fact is, in a sense, that a modern war is fought more in terms of logistic supplies than on the battle ground. No one can win a war without a continuous flow of supplies.

In Asia, no country, other than Japan, would support the U.S. with a strong supply line. It is the only nation that’s capable of doing this. If the CCP could succeed in subduing Japan, and dividing Europe and the U.S. it could thus isolate the U.S., making it fight a far-flung war alone. I don’t think that American generals believe they could stand a better chance of winning such a war.

So what we need to do is to prevent these conditions from materializing before the CCP launches the war.

Avoid a Breach Between the U.S. and Europe

One of the important steps the CCP would take to split the U.S. and Europe is to encourage Europe to lift its ban on arms sales to China. Lifting the ban would mean tens of billions of dollars worth of arms orders from China. These orders, long-term in nature, would not be completed soon. What motive would Europe have to fight a war with the U.S. during those 20 years, with orders yet unfulfilled?

By that time, I think Europe will be hesitant. Right now, the U.S. insists that no weapons from Europe be sold to China, and that disagreement itself may well be the cause for a U.S.-Europe split. Moreover, once the ban is lifted in Europe, countries such as South Africa, Israel, Russia and others will scramble for a share of the business with China.

North Korea’s Nuclear Problem

North Korea, a clown and a pawn for the CCP, is trying to blackmail Japan and South Korea with its nuclear stick, and as a result, they might not assist the U.S. in the war. The Japanese are particularly sensitive about the nuclear issue, because they were victims of two atomic bombs.

Japan is the only nation where atomic bombs have ever been dropped. They create a big fanfare about nuclear matters and the whole nation is terrified. Under the threat of nuclear weapons by North Korea, many people in Japan have said, “let us not be hit by atomic bombs for doing things for others.” When the time comes, Kim Jong II, North Korea’s Party chief, might really drop an atomic bomb on Japan, since a Communist rogue dares to do anything.

The Japanese public would seethe if an atomic bomb was dropped. The Japanese government, a democracy, will have no choice, but not to participate in the war.

The Communist Party Needs to Go to War to Survive

Lien and Soong’s trip to Taiwan was like admitting weakness to the enemy, and affected the Taiwanese’s confidence in defending their democracy. This was strategic blow to the unity between various Taiwan parties and groups. The second, even worse effect is that the public knows that the Communist Party has always been aggressively preparing for a war against Taiwan.

But it doesn’t matter if it’s Hu Jingtao or Jiang Zemin, the road of preparing for this war has been much more difficult than they expected. Moreover, outsiders have been trying hard to prevent this war by keeping the conditions for war from materializing.

In addition, many people with conscience in the Communist Party have voiced opposing opinions, building internal pressure. Although Hu Jingtao is a resolute person, there is in fact, considerable insider pressure, which has played a crucial role in preventing the war. Then Lien Zhan and Soong Chu-yu’s visit to China, immediately after the CCP passed the so-called “Anti-Secession Law,” revealed Taiwan’s weakness. In fact, this supports Hu Jingtao, by proving that the “Pro-war group’s” theory is correct, and that the “Anti-Secession Law” was passed just at the right time. You see how quickly Taiwan gives up? Today Lien Zhan and Soong Chu-yu, tomorrow it will be Chen Shui-bian.

Therefore, this is a way for the free and democratic Taiwan to surrender without a war, and encourages those pro-war Communist Party members, while discrediting some of the wiser people in the party. I believe this action has very evil consequences that will become very serious when we look back five or ten years from now.

Don’t think that just because the Communist Party says some nice words that they have good intentions towards Taiwan. The Communist Party has no good intentions. They have never had good intentions. Whenever they appear to have them, the common peoples’ experience has shown that there was always a bigger plot behind it.

I think that the people of Taiwan, especially those of the Pan-Blue Coalition, should look at the situation with wisdom, instead of listening to the nonsense spoken by their political leaders.

Although the Taiwan media was very supportive before and after Lien and Soong’s visit, this did not dupe the public. Therefore, in the recent National Assembly, many Pan-Blue Coalition members did not vote, because they wouldn’t accept the bent-knee surrender to the Communist Party. It is obvious that the internal opinions are very different. These are Taiwan’s people, especially the Pan-Blue Coalition members, warning their political leaders, “You’re wrong.”

The Entire World May Be Involved in this Chess Game

Why is Russia encouraging China into this war by selling weapons and providing petroleum pipelines? Putin’s political power is gradually gravitating toward a dictatorship. In this process, he hopes to restore Russia’s influence and control in Eastern Europe.

If war breaks out, the world’s attention and strength will be focused on the Taiwan Strait, and Russia could gamble and restore its sovereignty in Eastern Europe. Thus, this game of chance not only involves a few countries, it could include the world.

The forces within China that oppose the Communist Party would play a key role in directly preventing this war. Thus, it is very important for the Chinese people to recognize the Communist Party for what it is. For decades, the people have put great hopes in the Communist Party, only to be disappointed time after time.

Every time, the Communist Party paints a wonderful picture, telling people how good it is, that there are no problems, and that things can only get better. In the end, everybody was deceived. Before Hu Jingtao came to power, many people overseas held high hopes for him, working to spread Hu Jingtao’s propaganda, and now, what is the result? After he came to power, he arrested dissents, minority groups, Falun Gong practitioners, Christians, and even Communist Party members with differing opinions.

Several newspapers have already been banned. The Communist Party’s nature is to disappoint the kind-hearted people again and again, because it is an evil force. Hardly any of their long-planned agendas have done any good; they have only done evil.

If we are cheated this time, it could cause a world war, including attacking each other with atomic bombs. As a result, the Chinese people will have to withstand a huge disaster. Therefore, we are extremely worried. We must think of a way for everyone to take action to stop this war.