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Czech PM Gross Seen Losing Confidence Vote

By Alan Crosby
Reuters
Apr 04, 2005



Czech Prime Minister Stanislav Gross (R) and Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker answer questions during a joint press conference in Prague. (Nguyen Phuong Thao/AFP/Getty Images)
PRAGUE - Czech Prime Minister Stanislav Gross's minority government is likely to fall in a parliamentary confidence vote as early as this month, paving the way for a season of political uncertainty.

No date has been set for a confidence vote, but the cabinet will address the issue at a meeting on Wednesday- and the ultimate result could be either early elections or a long-term caretaker administration.

Gross, at 35 Europe's youngest prime minister, on Sunday made the surprise call for a confidence vote after having relied on the abstention of lawmakers from the opposition Communist party to survive a no-confidence vote in the lower house.

He called the confidence vote in response to pressure from President Vaclav Klaus and some cabinet ministers upset that for the first time since the 1989 end of Communism a government relied on the former totalitarian party in such a vote.

Gross could tie a confidence vote to a piece of legislation that would be acceptable to the Communists. But analysts said that would only underscore the view the government was being propped up by the Communists.

Many high-profile ministers would likely bolt the cabinet.

"His government has no chance," said political analyst Martin Komarek at the daily Mlada Fronta Dnes.

"For Gross to survive, he will have to have the open support of the Communists and if this occurred, several of his most trusted ministers would resign."

Gross lost his parliamentary majority last week when the centrist Christian Democrats left cabinet over a row with him over his personal finances. Gross denies any wrongdoing.

He has said the Communists are gaining no executive power and that they would not have a say in policy as the government addresses reforms mainly in the areas of taxation, healthcare and social welfare aimed at cutting state costs.

Buying Time

Analysts said Gross could be buying time to try to forge an agreement with the right-wing Civic Democrats- who called last Friday's no-confidence vote- on bringing forward elections that are now scheduled for the spring of 2006.

If the government does fall, early elections are tough to call due to constitutional restraints, so Klaus may instead try to reach a deal with all parties to name a caretaker government that will guide the country into 2006.

"My feeling is that Gross is trying to delay the moment, maybe to agree with others on what could be next. If the vote fails, it may open the door to early elections," said Pavel Sobisek, chief economist at HVB in Prague.

Analysts said the market had shrugged off political turmoil so far- the Czech crown is being moved by regional market sentiment- and the economy should not be affected by the crisis.

"The economic fundamentals here are solid and the crisis hasn't changed the outlook. Over the medium-term I don't see a major problem," Sobisek said.

Finance Minister Bohuslav Sobotka has already said the selloff of Cesky Telecom to Spain's Telefonica, which bid 82.6 billion crowns ($3.55 billion) for a 51 percent state stake in the former fixed line monopoly, is expected to be completed without delay.

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