VATICAN CITY - The countdown to the conclave to elect a new pope combines the tension of a nomination to the U.S. presidency with the intrigue that surrounded the rise of a Caesar in ancient Rome.

With the period of respectful silence after the death of Pope John Paul II now over, Italian newspapers have launched into tangled speculation over who is tipped to become the next pontiff and whose star is on the wane.

Top contender mid-week in many newspapers was the late Pope's close aide and arch-ideologue Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger. But by Saturday, some of the same newspapers were giving Germany's most famous Roman Catholic son the thumbs-down.

Most commentators agreed Ratzinger seemed able to attract a bloc of conservatives in a first ballot of the 115 cardinal electors scheduled for Monday or Tuesday.

But they said he seemed unlikely to gain the 77 votes needed to become the 264th successor to the first pope, St. Peter.

"Cardinal Ratzinger's candidacy has lost momentum or at least does not appear to be able to attract the sufficient votes for the first ballots," Il Messaggero newspaper said.

What could happen, newspapers were saying, is that the conservatives, among them Latin Americans and some Germans, might in a first vote show their support for traditionalist Ratzinger who turned 78 on Saturday.

Leading Church historian Paul Collins, speaking on the sidelines of a news conference in Rome of the Catholic reform group We Are Church, said he doubted Ratzinger's chances.

"There will be more progressive forces working within the conclave to oppose him. There's absolutely no doubt about that," Collins said.

Newspapers agreed. In the murky intrigues surrounding the conclave, the progressives may back a "no-hope" candidate such as retired archbishop of Milan, Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini, who is 78 and suffering from a form of Parkinson's Disease.

"They will vote for Martini not to elect him ... but to show there are other possibilities than choosing Ratzinger," Corriere della Sera said.

Candidates Emerge

Pages of profiles and commentary on the leading contenders have filled newspapers as if it were the runup to a U.S. political convention.

While all cardinals are sworn to secrecy, at least two newspapers said whispers in the corridors are now bearing a new name- Colombian cardinal Dario Castrillon Hoyos.

He works at the Vatican as head of the Congregation of the Clergy and is passionate about new technology. He uses the Internet and videoconferencing to train priests- a fitting candidate for the first conclave of the 21st century.

Also nodding towards Latin America, Il Giornale gave space to Cardinal Claudio Hummes of Brazil and his address on poverty at a pre-conclave gathering of cardinals on Friday.

Historian Collins said the region is where most Catholics live and much Latin American culture is derived from Europe.

"It just seems the right place at the right time," he said.

Over past days, commentators have variously leaned towards Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras, Nigeria's Cardinal Francis Arinze and Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn of Austria.

But outsiders may emerge as a compromise figure, as did Polish cardinal Karol Wojtyla in 1978 before becoming John Paul II.

"The word going around is that there is as much uncertainty as there was before the conclave which elected Wojtyla," Corriere della Sera said.

This time two camps could also emerge. After the first votes, moderates could rally around Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, the 71-year-old archbishop of Milan, and Rome's Cardinal Camillo Ruini could become the conservatives' standard-bearer.

In 1978, cardinals voted themselves into an impasse with arch-conservative Cardinal Giuseppe Siri of Genoa on one side and the more moderate Cardinal Giovanni Benelli of Florence on the other. That time the "princes of the Church" turned to Poland.

Additional reporting by Trevor Huggins in Rome