There is more than meets the eye in the trip to South Africa on June 27-29 of Zeng Qinghong, vice-president of China.

The media have reported Zeng went to South Africa for the sake of commercial agreements, and such agreements have been announced.

But Zeng used the trip to South Africa for other purposes: to demonstrate his loyalty to Jiang Zemin while attempting to solidify support for the persecution of Falun Gong; to advance his own ambitions to gain a controlling role in China’s military; and to undercut Taiwan’s alliance with South Africa while gaining for China important military technology.

The wounding of David Liang in the shooting attack on the Falun Gong practitioners on June 28 appears to have been one outcome of Zeng’s high stakes game of power politics.

Zeng Qinghong and Jiang Zemin

The key to understanding Zeng’s visit to South Africa lies first of all in understanding the relationship between Zeng and Jiang, and how each has used the other to advance his own ambitions.

Zeng came to Beijing in 1989 as Jiang Zemin’s hand-picked right-hand man. Jiang became the President of China, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and eventually Chairman of the Communist Party Military Commission. Zeng soon proved indispensable, highly valued for his superb political skills and dirty Machiavellian plotting behind the scenes.

Once at a party with his henchmen, Zeng talked about how he had assisted Jiang in consolidating his power. He even claimed to have “played the role of Jiang’s protector in handling many significant and critical events and decisions.”

Jiang resigned as General Secretary of the Communist Party in November 2002 and as President of China in April 2003. But he has retained his position as Chair of the Military Commission, and with it much of his power.

Jiang has used this power to reward Zeng. With Jiang’s backing, Zeng has risen rapidly. In 2002 Zeng was a member of the Central Political Committee and a secretary of the Central Secretariat. Now Zeng is vice-president of China.

Moreover, Jiang is strongly supporting a bid to put Zeng in as vice-chair of the Communist Party Military Commission, second only to Jiang in running the army. Jiang has recently “instructed,” “Let Qinghong take care of matters in the army.” There have also been reports that Jiang has proposed letting Zeng be the vice-chair of the Central Military Commission as a condition for Jiang finally resigning.

Clearly, Zeng is being put by Jiang into a position to challenge Hu Jintao, the President of China and Chair of the Communist Party, for supremacy.

Jiang, Zeng and the Military Commission

But Jiang also needs Zeng at the military commission, where Jiang’s power is more frail than might appear. There are many rumors that Jiang is worried that he cannot control the military. Although he gives out title after title to those who should be his friends, he receives little help.

Zeng, for his part, has always wanted to advance to the highest level of the Military Commission, and has prepared the way for his own ambitions by seeing that his family members are appointed to high posts in it.

According to a Duowei News report, Zeng’s brother Zeng Qingyuan was promoted to be Communist Party People’s Liberation Army Air Force Rear Service headquarters political commissar and Air Force party committee member. Zeng Qinghong’s other brother Zeng Qingyang was transferred to work as the minister for the scientific research instruction department of the Chinese Communist Party Military Academy of Science. His sister Zeng Haisheng was promoted to be Chinese Communist Party Headquarters Management Safeguard Department political commissar. All three siblings are generals.

But even with his family members positioned to help him, Zeng still needs Jiang. Zeng has not yet solidified his power, and, simply put, Zeng is not popular.

Zeng received only 87.5% of the electoral votes to become the vice-president of China. This was one of the lowest vote totals of all officials in the Party’s history. Even former premier Li Peng, generally regarded as an unpopular leader, received 88.5% of the votes. In comparison, when Hu Jintao was elected to be the president of China last year, he received 97% of all electoral votes.

Zeng Said to Orchestrate Attack on Falun Gong Practitioners in South Africa

Sources inside the Chinese Communist Party believe Zeng arranged the attack on Falun Gong practitioners in South Africa. He is said to have done this to demonstrate his loyalty to Jiang.

The persecution of Falun Gong in China has always been Jiang’s personal campaign. He ordered this persecution over the objections of members of the Permanent Standing Committee of the Politburo, and, once it began, personally took a hand in compelling party members to carry the persecution out.

Recently, the persecution has become a sensitive issue among top party officials, and enormous resistance to carrying out Jiang’s tough policies has appeared. This resistance to the persecution obviously undercuts Jiang’s policy. Perhaps less obviously, it also undercuts Jiang’s reputation, and with it his power.

The information that the nine Australians were travelling to South Africa to aid in an attempt to sue Zeng and Bo Xilai, provided the Machiavellian Zeng with a very valuable opportunity. By ordering the attack on the Australians, Zeng not only meant to send a message to the Falun Gong practitioners, to “teach them a lesson.” He also meant to send Jiang and other party members a message. Zeng was showing his loyalty to Jiang and his support for the persecution.

Sources inside the party also reveal that Zeng wishes to have it both ways. While publicly demonstrating his loyalty to Jiang, Zeng has also retained top-secret documents on the crackdown of Falun Gong, documents that would give Zeng leverage to deal with Jiang himself, should it come to that.

Zeng, South Africa, and Taiwan

Zeng went to South Africa knowing he needs a big win to demonstrate to the military establishment his value to them. His trip to South Africa has the potential to be his ticket to power in China’s military.

South Africa has long had diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and has also had an important strategic relation with Taiwan.

South Africa provides Taiwan with nuclear material. In addition, South Africa has advanced weapons technology, including a stealth technology for certain naval vessels. This technology would be very valuable to Taiwan’s military, who in fact are trying to acquire it.

Zeng went to South Africa to try to weaken its alliance with Taiwan and bring it into closer alliance with China. Among Zeng’s goals were to stop the selling of nuclear material to Taiwan, prevent the sale of the stealth technology, and to obtain that technology for China’s own military.

No doubt the economic relations that the mainstream press have emphasised in reporting on Zeng’s visit proved valuable to Zeng in his negotiations. In 1990 the South Africa-China trade stood at 1.5 billion U.S. dollars. Last year that figure had grown to 3.7 billion U.S. dollars. We wait to see whether South Africa decided it to be more profitable to sell out its old relation with Taiwan for the sake of a improving relations with China, and whether Zeng did indeed manage to get his ticket stamped on the way to dominance in China’s military.

Meanwhile, David Liang lies in a Johannesburg hospital bed, recovering from his injuries.